영국의 연구소 CEBR(the Centre for Economics and Business Research )가 26일 공개한 WELT 2019 보고서(세계경제순위표, World Economic League Table 2019)에 따르면 한국은 2026년 '세계 경제 톱 10'에 진입할 전망이다.
CEBR의 WELT 2019 보고서에서는 한국이 2026년 세계 경제 10위권에 진입하며, 특히 통일한국은 2030년대에 영국과 프랑스를 제치고 6위의 경제대국이 될 것이라는 전망이 나왔다.
CEBR 연구소는 "한반도 상황이 예전과 다르지 않지만 통일을 향한 전망이 극적으로 바뀌면 이야기는 달라질 것"이라며 "남한 생활 수준으로 통일이 되면 한국은 2030년대 영국과 프랑스를 제치고 세계 6번째 규모의 GDP를 갖게 될 것"이라고 밝혔다.
또한 CEBR의 WELT 2019 보고서는 2033년 중국이 미국을 제치고 세계 1위 경제대국이 될 것으로 전망했다.
영국은 브렉시트(영국 유럽연합(EU) 탈퇴)로 인해 2019년에 프랑스에 6위를 내주고 7위로 하락할 것으로 전망했다.
CEBR WELT 2019 보고서 다운로드 https://cebr.com/download/5211/
이하 한국과 관련된 내용 전문
Korea is a fast growing and wealthy economy in Asia which in GDP per capita terms is rapidly catching up with its neighbour Japan. In 2018 it was the 32nd richest country in GDP per capita terms at $41,420 in international dollars. In 1960 its GDP per capita on the same basis is estimated at $79 (and its actual nonPPP adjusted GDP per capita only $159), lower than many parts of Sub Saharan Africa, so the pace of development has been spectacular even by Asian standards.
The structure of the economy is dominated by export led growth from industry dominated by ‘chaebols’ family led conglomerates. Following the Asian economic crisis in 1997 Korea suffered from a liquidity crisis and needed an IMF bailout. One of the conditions of the bailout was an economic restructuring that led the country to concentrate on information and communications technology (ICT). Korea now leads the world in many parts of the ICT hardware business. Because of the success of these manufacturing exports, industry accounts for as much as 39% of GDP in Korea.
The Korean population of 51.2 million is still growing, if relatively slowly at 0.4% per annum in 2017. But technological progress means that growth is supported by productivity.
Korea has traditionally run a budget surplus. The surplus in 2018 was 1.3% of GDP and, although this is expected to fall back into balance over the next two years, this means that the country is about the most fiscally stable in the world. The gross debt to GDP ratio at 40% is misleading – more appropriate is the net measure which shows a debt of only 11%.
The traditional standoff with North Korea has held the country back and in early 2017/18 the crisis seemed to risk nuclear war. But energetic action by the Chinese seems to have diffused the problem and a rapprochement seems to be taking place. If it develops further it could become a major stimulus to growth. We are still working on the assumption that the situation remains much the same as in the past but positive moves towards unification would change our forecast dramatically. A unified Korea at South Korean living standards would have a GDP that would be the sixth largest in the world in the 2030s overtaking both the UK and France.
We predict that GDP will rise at annual rates of 2.7% 2018-23 and 3.0% 2023-33.
Ranked 11th in the 2018 World Economic League Table, we predict that Korea will enter the ranks of the world’s 10 largest economies in 2026 even without unification.